A lot of what you say also applies to me and how I think. Not with skiing because I've never tried it, but it absolutely applied when I used to ride and keep horses. I'd do things that were a bit hairy and survive, but I would never believe that I survived due to my own skill and put it down to being lucky. Therefore instead of trying again and doing it better, I made sure that I never got into those situations again in case my luck ran out. As shewhomust said, there is a very fine line between being the right amount of confident and dangerous overconfidence.